🪫 Low on Gas - MM#606
Good day my good friend.
You have probably heard about the horrible situation in Israel and Gaza. A friend of my good friend Eyal Santo has had their young nieces kidnapped and taken into Gaza. This is a long shot, but if any of you know anything about their whereabouts, please let them know1.
If you like this newsletter, please share it with someone else who you think will love it. I will love you forever if you do. ☺️
James
⛽ Beware unintended consequences
This newsletter has previously covered the necessity of transitioning the vehicle fleet to electric vehicles as a means of achieving our climate goals. There are known consequences of doing so, such as radically shifting vehicle supply chains and changes in pollution of particulates. Much of this knowledge is down to the fact that we already have a front-runner on the adoption of electric vehicles. Norway.
Most people I know understand that Norway is a leader in electric vehicles, but few understand quite how far ahead it is. By 2025 it will be illegal to sell any fossil fuel powered vehicles in Norway including hybrids. In 2022, battery electric vehicles made up 79.2% of new car sales in Norway. So this makes the country perfect for understanding the impact EV adoption will have on society. And one early finding could have profound effects, particularly for less accessible areas.
The days of the petrol station are numbered.
Its obvious, really. When you have an electric vehicle, and especially if you have origin and destination charging, there is no need for the special or stop off trip to the pumps. In fact, even when petrol stations install charging points, people only use them once a month. In fact, over half of drivers use fast charging points less than once a month.
To understand this impact better, current petrol stations make their money in two ways. The first is selling fuel, but not much money is made here. Figures vary, but in the USA the average station owner pulls in about 7 cents profit in every dollar spent on fuel. The second is in the shop - those bottles of water, the loaf of bread, sweets for the kids in the back, and the flowers because you are in trouble. The shop pulls in a profit margin of 33%, much higher than the fuel.
Under the current model it the most profitable customers are the ‘high milers’ - more miles so visiting more often, meaning they buy that chocolate bar or decide to get that coffee from the machine as they queue to pay for fuel. In an EV world, their visits are radically reduced. And without that, the petrol station dies.
But here is the rub. Those situated in rural areas are the more vulnerable to this change. Such stations rely on passing motorists to stop, fuel up (in both senses), and carry on. They make lower margins and face higher costs due to their rural nature - in other words, it costs more to get fuel to them. Furthermore, in many rural communities, the petrol station can provide access as a food store, even for fresh goods like bread and vegetables.
In some respects, this is a continuing trend. In the UK, there were 35,000 petrol stations in 1980, and there were just over 8,000 in 2021. Many petrol stations are trialling the installation of local EV hubs. Some, like Parkfoot in Kent, have transitioned away from petrol completely and into retail.
But why this is important to us as transport decision makers is because in achieving a noble policy goal, there will be consequences in our communities. Elaine Schwarz, whose post on her Econlife blog inspired this post, puts faith in the creative destruction of entrepreneurs (in a good way) as a way of seeking opportunity from such consequences. Regardless, when you are finalising your local EV charging point policy, think of this. You may be changing communities across your area far more than you think.
What you can do: This is an odd one, because this is something ripe for researching, discovering, and exploring as opposed to doing at this stage. I would highly recommend Elaine Schwarz’s post on gas station economics, this post and report on Norway’s evolving EV incentives, and this article on rural petrol stations on the Autocar website as good starting points.
If you want to explore the implications of EV charging policy, do so with experts and people who know inaccessible areas inside out. Doing a workshop using system mapping or critical uncertainties as methods is a good way, maybe even use an Agreement-Certainty Matrix. Regardless, identify the possible, then the plausible, and ask what you can do to plan for that, if anything.
🙂 Good news corner
An occasional segment, because sometimes we need it. And this good news is associated with electric vehicles.
If you are worried that we are losing the climate fight, remember this. At the moment, the world is adding 1 Gigawatts (GW) of solar energy every day.
So what, doesn’t sound much, right? Put this in perspective, the UK’s Nuclear Power Stations produced 15.5% of the UK’s annual electricity in 2022, and they have a capacity of 5.9GW. So by the end of this week, the same solar capacity will have been installed across the world.
🎓 From academia
The clever clogs at our universities have published the following excellent research. Where you are unable to access the research, email the author - they may give you a copy of the research paper for free.
A review of the housing market-clearing process in integrated land-use and transport models
TL:DR - Clearing is a process where supply is the same as demand. The problem is, land use and transport models rarely care about it.
TL:DR - Assumptions about working from home depend on how flexible employers are being.
Online shopping, brick-and-mortar retailers and transit ridership in the U.S.
TL:DR - Online shopping has an effect on visits to the mall, which has a (tiny) impact on use of local public transport.
Urban form, air pollution, and walking behavior: A study of Salt Lake County, Utah
TL:DR - Downtown is good for walking.
✊ Awesome people doing awesome things
Howay the Lads for this one, because this one goes out to Newcastle United Football Club. Ok, technically its to Newcastle United and Nexus, as fans heading to St James’s Park have for some time been able to benefit from a ticket not offered by any other football team I know of - the Magpie Mover.
For £25 for the season, season ticket holders at the club can get unlimited use of local public transport for 3 hours before and 3 hours after matches. Its even accepted by the Shields ferry. It also helps when the metro has a station directly under the stadium.
This is an example that most sports teams should follow.
📷 Out and About
Prior to Mobility Camp a couple of weeks ago, I got the chance to have a wander around the centre of Birmingham. The transformation of the place over the last 20 years has been nothing short of stunning.
I simply had to ride the Metro. After extending to Edgbaston Village (not a village) and Wolverhampton station, its now trialling dogs being allowed on trams. Dogs and trams. What’s not to like?
The canals around the city centre are great. And its practically a legal requirement that I tell you that Birmingham has more miles of canal than Venice.
The changes in the public space are insane. Victoria Square is a particular highlight for me, though the area outside the Library as well as New Street are also brilliantly done. Also, fans of #tramsandgrass may want to look down the side of Birmingham Snow Hill station.
Finally, I paid two visits to Ozzy. The first was to see the huge bull at Birmingham New Street station. The second was seeing the tribute to Black Sabbath on the bridge that takes Broad Street over the old line of the Birmingham Canal.
What you can do: A lot of the public realm projects are being delivered as part of the City Centre Public Real Improvements. You should find out more information on how this was done on the Birmingham City Council website.
Oh, and go and see the improvements yourself. All are within walking distance of New Street, Snow Hill, and Moor Street stations.
📻 On the Wireless
Recently, I have been on a binge of listening to the Well There’s Your Problem podcast. And its brilliant. Just a group of people talking, laughing, and joking about some of the biggest engineering fails of all time.
Episode’s I highly recommend include The Impossible Railroad, Berlin Brandenburg Airport, and the Herald of Free Enterprise. Warning: contains jokes about dark subjects and a lot of politics.
📚 Random things
These links are meant to make you think about the things that affect our world in transport, and not just think about transport itself. I hope that you enjoy them.
Can scientific expertise sway public opinion on clean air zones? (London School of Economics)
Echoes of Coal in West Virginians’ Resistance to Mountain Valley Pipeline (The Daily Yonder)
Big and Small Steps to Beat the Heat (CityFix)
Did female driving increase Saudi patriarchy? (Dr Alice Evans)
YouTubers Fuel a Housing Crunch in One of Europe’s Tiniest Nations (CityLab)
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If you plan to respond along the lines of a particular side being barbarians, imperialists, terrorists, or whatever, just to let you know I am not interested. And doing so will get you a very blunt response from me. There are plenty of places to discuss the relative merits of the situation in the Middle East, and replying to something where people are trying to find their kids is not it.