⚡ To EV or not to EV... - MM#599
Good day my good friend.
To complete a week of short intros…I’m just tired today. Let’s get on with it.
Not long now until, we are talking ‘changing the narrative’ on sustainable transport at Mobility Camp on 26th September 2023 in Birmingham. It would be great to see you there. Get your tickets now.
If you like this newsletter, please share it with someone else who you think will love it. I will love you forever if you do. ☺️
James
⚡ …that is the question
I’ve got another confession to make. Not so long ago, I was a huge Electric Vehicle (EV) cynic. Why on Earth were government’s spending millions, billions even, on subsidising electric vehicle take-up? We know the solutions that are needed to decarbonise transport - bikes, walking, public transport, behaviour change, avoid-shift-improve! To achieve the requirements of the Paris Climate Change Agreement, we just need to do all that, not make cars slightly better.
Now, I’m not so sure of that.
Don’t get me wrong. EVs don’t solve all our problems, and in some cases may make the problems worse. But a fog of war has descended between many professionals and activists over the role that EVs play in our transport future, especially when it comes to reducing carbon emissions. With many citing studies saying how they will play a small role in reducing carbon emissions, and others saying they are the only way to avoid disaster.
Lets look at the evidence using a couple of different studies. In a study of Paris-compliant pathways in the UK and Sweden, Kevin Anderson, John Broderick, and Isak Stoddard used the concept of carbon budgets to estimate pathways towards a Paris-aligned level of emissions by different sectors. The overall conclusion of this work is that while the UK is anticipated to come in under its carbon budget, it needs to continually and rapidly decrease carbon emissions.
But what does this mean, in plain English, for electric vehicles? This is not detailed in this study, but supplementary analysis by Anderson reported here and here indicates that to maintain the path towards a Paris-compliant pathway, not only does the car fleet have to be electrified by 2040, vehicle-kilometres would also need to be reduced by half to remain on this pathway.
It should be noted that such findings have helped Transport for the North in the development of its Decarbonisation Strategy. This shows that for car travel, changes in vehicle kilometres by 2045 needs to be between 3% and 14% lower than the baseline growth in travel (i.e. a reduction).
On the other side is the UK’s Committee on Climate Change. As part of its Sixth Carbon Budget and the associated scenarios work, the Committee concludes that achieving its Balanced Net Zero Pathway is the most optimal in achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050 in the UK. Its analysis shows that, for transport, reducing vehicle kilometres by 17% compared to the baseline scenario, and having 97% of all new car sales being battery electric by 2030 are key components of achieving net zero emissions.
Or, to put it more simply, the adoption of electric cars would be responsible for 49% of the carbon savings from transport by 2050, and behaviour change 18%.
Some more details on the assumptions underpinning this analysis can be found in this Freedom of Information Act Request. There is a lot of discussion and critique about the adequacy of the Committee’s overall assessment, specifically with regards to assumptions on the impacts of technology. This by CREDS is a good summary of how the methodologies used could be improved, but questioning the validity of the methods is not my purpose here.
Two different studies, two very different perspectives on the relative importance of EVs and behaviour change. Both arguably valid, and both leading to a confusing picture as to what to do. When we have to be certain in what we do, having uncertainty around the pathway to it does not help. But to me, there is no uncertainty here.
What both analyses make clear is that both the acceleration of behaviour change in how we travel and the adoption of electric vehicles are essential to achieving net zero carbon emissions. This is not an either/or choice. Both are needed to achieve a net zero future.
So if someone asks you whether, to reduce carbon emissions, we should invest in electric vehicles or invest in changing travel behaviours, the answer is a clear one. We must invest in both.
Where the different may lie is how close we are to the tipping point to achieving each. For electric vehicles, we are well on the way. In August, 13.3% of new cars sold in the UK were battery electric vehicles, and fossil fuel powered cars were in the minority of sales of new cars. Meanwhile, travel behaviour change has hardly moved with the exception of COVID-19. So while both actions are critical, behaviour change perhaps needs a bit more of a nudge.
What you can do: When developing your action plans for schemes to deliver in your community with a target to reduce carbon emissions, consider giving higher priority to supporting the adoption of electric vehicles, alongside initiatives to encourage the use of cars less. Test these policy options against goals to reduce carbon emissions. If you don’t have access to the likes of TAG or resources such as those use by Transport for the North, consider these 5 steps in the Harvard Business Review.
🎓 From academia
The clever clogs at our universities have published the following excellent research. Where you are unable to access the research, email the author - they may give you a copy of the research paper for free.
Do shared E-bikes reduce urban carbon emissions?
TL:DR - Yes, particularly outside of city centres.
TL:DR - Making customers happy depends on making streets nice.
Dynamic battery swapping and rebalancing strategies for e-bike sharing systems
TL:DR - Being more flexible in how batteries are replaced can save fleet costs.
✊ Awesome people doing awesome things
Not many of you will have heard of Lee Waters. He is the Deputy Minister for Climate Change at Llywodraeth Cymru, he is the Member of the Senedd for the Llanelli constituency in Wales, as well as being a politician in the Welsh Labour Party. If you want a politician to walk the walk on climate change, you look at him.
First, he was the Minister who took the bold decision to effectively cancel most road building projects in Wales. And second, from this Sunday his policy of a default national 20mph speed limit across urban areas in Wales will come into force. He has taken a lot of political heat for it. So perhaps we need to show him some love for awesome.
What you can do: Drop Lee a message through the contact details on the Welsh Government website, and tell him how much of an amazing job he is doing.
📼 On the (You)Tube
Travelling for leisure is a major trip generation source. But can us enjoying life be made more eco-friendly? And can we reduce the impacts of something that can be highly-polluting? Maybe. Its a hard thing to do, but fortunately there are some actions that we can take both as individuals and organisations.
What you can do: The obvious thing is that if you are going on holiday, explore options that do not involve flying. I highly recommend checking out The Man in Seat 61’s recommendations for European night trains. For American followers, familiarise yourselves with Amtrak’s long distance routes. For elsewhere, Great Rail Journeys is highly recommended.
For practitioners, I highly recommend reading about the work of the Lake District National Park in reducing the impacts of people travelling to the Lakes by car. Contact them, and learn lessons from them.
🖼️ Graphic Design
Now, I have a lot of questions on this graphic. Like how do you measure this kind of thing. But even then, the degree to which technology is catching up on tasks that were previously thought as human is insane.
📚 Random things
These links are meant to make you think about the things that affect our world in transport, and not just think about transport itself. I hope that you enjoy them.
‘Project 2025’: plan to dismantle US climate policy for next Republican president (The Guardian)
September 13, 2023 (Letters from an American)
In this small Ohio town, troll dolls outnumber people (Idea Stream)
Two Wins, a Loss, and a Disaster (The Crucial Years)
Read This If You Never Take Your Shoes Off When You Go Into Your House (Huffington Post)
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EVs are the answer, just not necessarily cars: see the stats on the impact of electrification of 2 and 3 wheelers
https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/?utm_source=social-o&utm_medium=Twitter_BNEF&utm_term=11277910354&utm_campaign=732078&tactic=732078&linkId=233888430