Mobility Matters Daily #115 - Another short one
I also go off on one about HS2. You are warned.
Good day friend.
Everybody seems to have gone on holiday, as not much seems to be happening in the world of transport right now. Which makes for a short newsletter, which is just as well as we have some building work about to take place at the house, and I am needed elsewhere at any moment. So lets get to it.
James
HS2 has all the hallmarks of a project in trouble
Recent news that work on the Eastern section of HS2 has been put on hold for the time being, following previous annoucements from the Prime Minister that it will be going ahead, has been met with the expected fury from leaders. With a project of such huge scale, problems with its delivery were inevitable and cost-overruns and delays almost a certainty. But this points to a problem more fundamental.
Whilst I certainly do not have access to the detailed risk and issue registers of the project (the risk model report from 2012 is available), and I accept that Phase 1 is going ahead all guns blazing, Phase 2 of HS2 has the flashing red lights of a project that looks to be in trouble:
Projects being paused “pending a review as part of wider plans” simply does not happen unless the case for them is marginal. I know of few projects anywhere regardless of sector that need to be constantly paused just to double-check them.
Projects recognise their interfaces are complex, but keep governance as simple as practicable. HS2 Limited has a reasonably simple governance arrangement, but the complications come from the relationship with the Department for Transport, as set out in the Management Case for HS2. I count at least 4 boards across 2 organisations in that structure that do similar things. Unclear governance leads to unclear decisions.
We cannot ignore the political risk associated with this project, but this is a risk of any major construction project. We would expect the Prime Minister and the Ministerial team at DfT to support the project, as well as the City Region Mayors. But the project is politically divisive at the highest level, with little seemingly done to smooth that.
Also, a poor record with cost overruns and delays does not help. Yes, plans need to change to reflect the situation on the ground. And this is a big project. But from £50bn to £70bn is a big cost increase.
Maybe I am being harsh with this, and things are better than it seems. I am certainly willing to hear the counter argument. But pausing for reviews, unclear governance, not minimising the political risk, and a track record of going over budget and being delayed are significant warning signs that something is not right. Something that cannot be put down to just standard project delivery experience.
I was once told by a Project Manager from a previous working life that once a good project starts, it justifies itself. Some will always be controversial but make the case to justify their continuation easily once under way. HS2 has not been like that, and whilst politics plays a big role in seeding doubt about projects, it almost never kills them on its own.
The case for HS2, for me, is still there. Just about. But it does need help.
Stat of the Day
Transport planners know that life stages have an impact upon people’s choices of mode of transport. What this great visualisation does is show people are moving to and in each state of the USA. Looks like a lot of retirees are heading to Delaware, Florida, Montana, Arizona, and South Carolina.
Source: LenioLabs
If you do nothing else today, do this
Read the International Transport Forum’s research into Mobility as a Service in a post-COVID-19 era.