🥅 Complex Goals - MM#582
Good day my good friend.
This week I have been mostly writing, a lot. To the point where I could probably type blindfolded and still come up with a somewhat coherent newsletter. So you will have to accept my apologies for more spelling mistakes than usual!
If the weekend’s announcement by the Prime Minister still has you hot under the collar, we are talking ‘changing the narrative’ on sustainable transport at Mobility Camp on 26th September 2023 in Birmingham. It would be great to see you there. Get your tickets now.
If you like this newsletter, please share it with someone else who you think will love it. I will love you forever if you do. ☺️
James
🔀 Non-linearity Futures
Have you every been in a position where something you have done has had an effect you never expected? Let me give you an example. Lets say at the start of summer you said to yourself you will try and get fit. You go out jogging all summer, and keep it up during the winter. Yet, due to the cold, dark nights, you decide to continue running at the gym. When the weather warms up, you head back outside, but you never cancel your gym membership. Welcome to the world of non-linear effects. Where because you started running outside, your bank account is being drained by a gym membership.
In transport, we tend to think in linear ways. If we build a cycle track, then more people will cycle, which means less congestion. Approaches such as logic mapping are built into our assessement frameworks as understanding cause and effect in this way makes it easy for us to capture the benefits and their associated values. And this is useful. But it is also restrictive. It confines us to a set way of seeing the world and its impacts, and does not help us understand the wider impacts of what we do. And the associated benefits and costs of doing so.
I have long been an advocate of systems thinking in transport, not as a means of sounding clever or introducing needless but intelligent sounding complexity (i.e. being a consultant), but as a means of understanding the value of what we do. I won’t bore you with the details behind how to do systems thinking - this government toolkit does a better job than I ever will. But I will show why thinking in non-linear ways is valuable.
Take for example the below systems map on how the city of Paris meets its climate change goals.
So lets take this system map for a ride, shall we? Lets say Paris wants to start engaging people in climate-related action more systemically (bottom right). A potential impact could be more demand for an increase in capacity for alternative modes of transport. As more engaged people leads to more urban greening. The associated green spaces reduce carbon emissions, which increases political pressure from inhabitants to do more to tackle carbon emissions. So that means doing more for non-car modes of transport.
You may, rightly, make the point that this effect is so abstract or minor that it is impossible for us to make that link and capture its value. But that is not my point here. When it comes to understanding the value and costs associated with transport interventions, this is what that value and cost realisation looks like in the real world. These are millions of small interactions taking place over local, regional, and national geographies that individually are hard to detect, but collectively scale to significant impacts.
The irony is that we sometimes scale such small impacts to a collective impact, when it suits us. If a road scheme results in savings of 30 seconds in driving time per trip, the value of those savings are scaled as part of our statutory assessments of impacts. Systems thinking helps us to think about what these impacts could be, and then we must decide whether these impacts are valuable enough for us to measure. And in a complex world, the more of these impacts we measure and understand, the better that our policies will be.
What you can do: If you want a good introduction to complexity and systems thinking, I highly recommend listening to The Clock and the Cat Podcast by Mark Foden. It has a specific focus on policy making which is great for those of you working in transport strategy teams.
Systems mapping should be an essential part of how you develop your transport strategy, whether that be for a whole region or just your community. So run a systems mapping exercise with team members and stakeholders right at the start of your strategy work. This article is a great introduction on how to do a systems mapping exercise. Kumu is a great, free tool for doing some good systems mapping.
20 is not plenty for Rishi
I will stop talking about politics, I swear. Once the UK Government starts to talk some degree of sense. In another round of throwing red meat the to comments section of the Daily Mail, PM Rishi is considering a crackdown on 20mph speed limits being introduced by Councils. To be fair, its not as if the Prime Minister has come out and said “I want to see people tearing down the road outside schools” and it seems to be a case of the press reporting rumours. But when its reported in some other places and when politicians who are a few eggs short of a dozen call for action to be taken, there is some credence to it.
Lets be clear about this. 20mph zones save lives. This briefing by RoSPA puts the arguments in favour of 20mph zones perfectly. Much like the plan for Wales, they should be the default speed limit in urban areas. They are supported overwhelmingly by the public. Shockingly, people tend not to like speeding traffic, and they support them being introduced.
This is another example of political expediency, and a daresay vanity, overcoming logic and reasoning. And this is where some degree of political nous is needed to argue back. So lets start arguing politically.
What you can do: Remind our Transport Ministers of the popularity of 20mph zones, I would suggest in a polite yet firm email to them. If anyone argues against them, come armed with facts and argue positively for their implementation.
🎓 From academia
The clever clogs at our universities have published the following excellent research. Where you are unable to access the research, email the author - they may give you a copy of the research paper for free.
Policy responses and travellers’ preferences in pandemics: Evidence from Europe
TL:DR - COVID had a dramatic impact on how we fly, even if there were no travel restrictions.
TL:DR - Kids in rural areas have a different perception of safety compared to how we see, and formally assess, the road.
TL:DR - If you want to accidentally step out in the road when walking, walk with friends.
Partial Electrification Strategies for Diesel Commuter Rail’s Climate Challenge
TL:DR - Electrify railways already. If you can’t (or won’t), battery-electric locomotives may be good.
✊ Awesome people doing awesome things
A big shoutout needs to go to Hazel Peacock of the Oatlands Road Safety and Active Travel Campaign in Harrogate, Yorkshire. She and others in the campaign have fought long and hard for active travel measures for years, and finally she got a win. A brand new School Street is starting at the Oatlands Junior School in Harrogate. May your roads be filled with the sounds of kids playing, and may there be more of them in the future.
Got someone doing something awesome in transport decarbonisation, transport justice, or transport safety who deserves a shout out? Let me know about them so we can give them a shout out!
📼 On the (You)Tube
In case you hadn’t guessed, I have a thing about trees. Mainly because they are awesome. So this video is a great thought experiment - what would happen if you cut down all of the trees in an urban area. Its not good, sorry.
What you can do: Investigate the requirements of your local tree protection laws where you live, and apply them to as many trees in your area as you can. In the UK, that process is known as Tree Preservation Orders. This guide by Friends of the Earth is a brilliant how-to guide on protecting trees on our highways. Use it, and protect as many trees as you can.
🖼️ Graphic Design
When do people walk in Melbourne, and when they get to the city centre where do they go? This visualisation has it covered. You need to follow the link to get the full picture, but what this says is that lots of people walk in the main shopping areas, and the numbers have bounced back since COVID and the associated lockdowns.
What you can do: Some local authorities do publish open walking data. Data.world has access to some of these datasets for walking, and even more for pedestrians. My British followers should look at Data.gov.uk for a good set of local data if there is any. Take that data. Play with it. Tell a story with it to help make the change to improve pedestrian environments where you live.
📚 Random things
These links are meant to make you think about the things that affect our world in transport, and not just think about transport itself. I hope that you enjoy them.
These Tech Companies Think They Can ‘Solve’ the Wildfire Crisis (Vice)
Built on sand: the need for new environmental standards in the construction industry (Policy@Manchester)
Research into practice: Lessons from development impact evaluation (VoxDev)
Scientists race to test claimed room-temperature superconductor (New Scientist)
Science Versus Scientism in Real Life: Where Do We Go from Here? (Naked Capitalism)
✍️ Your Feedback Is Essential
I want to make the calls to actions better. To do this, I need your feedback. Just fill in the 3 question survey form by clicking on the below button to provide me with quick feedback, that I can put into action. Thank you so much.