💬 Change the Narrative Part 3 - MM#602
Good day my good friend.
I am very much looking forward to meeting many of you at Mobility Camp on Tuesday. For those of you who have yet to make up your mind, there are still tickets available for the rest of today, so snap them up while you can.
Also, because of this there will be no newsletter next week, with normal service resuming on 2nd October. So have fun everyone.
If you like this newsletter, please share it with someone else who you think will love it. I will love you forever if you do. ☺️
James
🌙 Moon Shot
Whenever I give Scenario Planning training, I touch on the value of visions. In doing so, I specifically mention the greatest vision that I personally have ever heard. Uttered by President John Kennedy on May 25, 1961.
I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal,
before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon
and returning him safely to the earth.
There is a lot of analysis out there of how good this vision is (or isn’t). But what is not often covered is the context within which this vision was set out.
The first part of this is the obvious: the Cold War. The United States was still reeling from the successful launch of Sputnik-1, as well as the failure of the launch of its own satellite in front of the world’s media. There was a real sense that, technologically, the United States was falling behind the Soviet Union. NASA’s history paints an interesting picture of how the public in the US perceived the situation…
The Baltimore survey asked the public to explain how the Russians had managed such a feat (launching Sputnik-1). Fifty-four percent did not know at all, 25 percent said that the Russians try harder,˛ and 10 percent that the Russians are just better at that kind of thing. A Gallup poll showed that 30 percent ascribed the Russian success to the fact that the Russians worked harder, 20 percent to the work of German scientists, and 15 percent to better organization. One-fourth of the sample had no explanation.
In 1961, the US was further rocked by the Soviet Union successfully launching the first man into space - Yuri Gagarin. Barely 6 weeks before Kennedy’s uttered those famous words in front of Congress.
The second thing that most people do not know is that at the time Kennedy said his words, he had no plan. At all. He asked Congress to boost NASA’s budget from $7 billion to $9 billion over the next 5 years, with no plan on how to get there. The technology of the time could just about get men into orbit, and even then NASA were struggling to do that.
This wasn’t to say that NASA was starting from scratch. By the time Kennedy said his famous speech, astronaut Alan Kennedy had flown on a short space flight to become the first American in space. But NASA was some way from launching men into space consistently.
The vision to shoot for the moon was cobbled together in just under 3 weeks between Kennedy’s team, Vice-President Lyndon B. Johnson, rocket scientists, and NASA. Kennedy and Johnson were only won over when famed (some would say infamous considering his ‘interesting’ past) rocket engineer Wernher von Braun stated that while the rocket capability needed to reach the moon was significant (10 times the power of what rockets were capable of in 1961)…
"Whilst today we do not have such a rocket, it is unlikely that the Soviets have it."
Even when Kennedy delivered his vision, American’s were not convinced. Only 42% of Americans agreed, immediately after his speech, that pushing for the moon should be supported.
Why do I say all of this? There is a simple reason. When setting a compelling vision for the future, people often respond with a simple question: so what is your plan for achieving it? It is a funny question, mostly asked by way of interest, but sometimes asked by way of cynicism.
The vision that ultimately landed Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin on the surface of the moon in 1969 shows something. That having a compelling vision is sometimes enough to get started. The route may be unclear, but if the destination is 100% clear, compelling, and plausible (this former part is why Kennedy’s vision is so good - its very clear on what it wants to achieve) it can buy you time to come up with a plan.
This is not to say that having no plan is a good idea. You need to know that what you plan to achieve is within the realms of possibility. And the plan needs to be developed and the resources marshalled to achieve it, and quickly. But sometimes, simply stating the end point, and stating it clearly, is enough to get started.
I often think of this when it comes to changing the narrative on what our future looks like. For many years, I have written visions that are two sentences of fluff. Things like “we want to support economic growth” or “facilitate sustainable travel choices.” To help us change the narrative, we need to ditch such visions.
Say “we want to see kids playing in the street instead of lines of parked cars.” Or “cars pumping out fewer pollutants.” Or “new transport infrastructure built that directly supports the green economy.” You know, visions.
Never underestimate their power to inspire action. President Kennedy understood that when he stood up in Congress, with a sceptical public and no plan on how to achieve it, and delivered the very first moon shot. The rest is history. When it comes to changing the narrative on what transport could look like in the future, lets start with a compelling vision of what that future looks like.
What you can do: Understand what makes a good vision. Read most Local Transport Plans and their visions, and vow never to write such a vision.
🎓 From academia
The clever clogs at our universities have published the following excellent research. Where you are unable to access the research, email the author - they may give you a copy of the research paper for free.
Gender disparities in multimodal travel Attitudes, Behavior, and satisfaction
TL:DR - Men and women in Delhi think very differently about public transport.
Drones in last-mile delivery: A systematic review on Efficiency, Accessibility, and Sustainability
TL:DR - More research is needed in Asia and Africa.
Work schedule arrangements in two-adult households with children
TL:DR - Someone models travel departure and arrival times of parents taking account of their schedules and the schedules of children. It works.
The effects of cash for clunkers on local air quality
TL:DR - Great title for a journal article. Oh, and trading in old cars improves air quality.
✊ Awesome people doing awesome things
I never thought I would say this, but well done to the car industry. After the UK’s Prime Minister’s latest commitment to doing nothing on reducing carbon emissions, some of the biggest critics were…the car industry.
Ford has said that the announcement to delay the ban on petrol and diesel cars until 2035 would put investment in the UK at risk. Meanwhile, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders has essentially said “we are not happy, and we need convincing on the details.” Though it should be noted that industry laggards like Jaguar Land Rover and Toyota have welcomed the announcement. Still, credit where it is due.
📼 On the (You)Tube
The Fully Charged Show has a call to action to everyone who supports electric vehicles. While the event has taken place, the Stop Burning Stuff Alliance is worthy of supporting.
🖼️ Graphic Design
Shockingly, the daily commute makes up a lot of our carbon emissions. At least if you are an American.
📚 Random things
These links are meant to make you think about the things that affect our world in transport, and not just think about transport itself. I hope that you enjoy them.
Uber Eats will start accepting food stamps for grocery delivery in 2024 (The Verge)
The Kids on the Night Shift (New York Times)
Bad news: Surge pricing is here to stay (The Hustle)
Global population exposure to landscape fire air pollution from 2000 to 2019 (Nature)
✍️ Your feedback is essential
I want to make the calls to actions better. To do this, I need your feedback. Just fill in the 3 question survey form by clicking on the below button to provide me with quick feedback, that I can put into action. Thank you so much.